Elbows are up, and U.S. popularity is way down

By Andrew Phillips

The headline that caught my eye recently was this one: “Look how much Canadians hate the United States now.”

It was on Politico and it was propped up by the results of a major new poll that suggests a “lasting chill” has settled over relations between our two countries.

To be clear off the top, the pollsters didn’t actually ask whether Canadians “hate” the U.S. But the headline hit home because it got at a basic truth: after a year of Trump, Canadian views of the United States have hardened in ways that have fundamentally reshaped, not only the relationship, but our entire political culture.

If there was any doubt, there’s another poll out last week along the same lines. This one’s from Nanos Research in the Globe and Mail. It’s just as bleak.

Canadians have given up on the U.S. as a reliable ally (three-quarters of them in the Nanos survey, 58 per cent in Politico).

Far more Canadians see the U.S. as the biggest threat to peace (58 per cent) than Russia (29 per cent) or China (just 10 per cent), according to Politico.

Two-thirds of Canadians are concerned that the U.S. and Donald Trump are a security threat to Canada (Nanos). One in five (21 per cent) believe an invasion ordered by Trump is likely; only half dismiss that possibility.

Unsurprisingly, Canadians think we need to take our distance from the U.S. Fifty-seven per cent say it’s better to rely on China than on “the U.S. under Donald Trump” (Politico). Forty-four per cent favour more trade with China (Nanos).

Pollster Nik Nanos summed it up: “These are probably the worst numbers in any era where polling was done.” Only if they were doing surveys around the time of the War of 1812 would the results likely have been worse.

None of this is a surprise. You could look at polls over the past year, or simply talk to your neighbours, and come to much the same conclusion. But taken together, it tells me there’s been a sea-change in national feeling.

It isn’t going to reverse itself if, by some miracle, Trump goes quiet or even when he leaves office in 2028 (assuming he goes peacefully). It’ll take the Americans years, probably a generation, to rebuild trust – and only if whoever comes after wants to do any such thing, which is not a given.

What are the implications? Canadians are a lot more clear-minded than they were a year ago. Their expectations have been lowered, then lowered again and again and yet again, when it comes to the United States.

The notion that Mark Carney should be blamed for not getting a “deal” with Trump seems now laughable, even though Conservatives and their allies keep playing that old tune. It’s apparent to anyone who’s paid attention that a decent deal hasn’t been available and the blame for its absence lies at the feet of Trump.
Likewise, the anxious chorus coming out of segments of the business community to the effect that Canada must do everything to make sure the CUSMA trade deal is renewed this summer now sounds distinctly out of sync with the national mood.

Obviously, having a predictable framework for trade and investment is highly desirable. But sounding desperate for a deal when the other side is making clear it doesn’t much care is a formula for losing. Canadians, it seems to me, are prepared for a longer period of trial and tribulation than they were even last year.

On a more party-political basis, the polls show quite clearly why Carney is riding high with Canadians even though there’s no deal in sight and his government has yet to show much in the way of concrete results from a year’s talk about rebuilding the economy.

Carney’s basic direction is very much in tune with what Canadians are thinking – and more important feeling – about the biggest national issue. For a while his critics hoped other issues (“affordability”) would come to fore if only Trump would leave us alone for a while.

Now we can see that was always an illusion: Canadians aren’t so naïve as to think the Trump threat is temporary, and they can see it’s making their other day-to-day concerns harder to address.

Canadians have fundamentally shifted their views and politicians who fail to keep up (viz.: Pierre Poilievre) are suffering the consequences.