If nothing else, John Hogan will get a tree

By Roger Bill

Winning a political party leadership vote to succeed a sitting premier is one path to the highest elected office in Newfoundland and Labrador, but it is a far from guaranteed path to a long stay. This political reality is something John Hogan, the Province’s 15th premier, probably reflects on frequently.
Several politicians have travelled that route since the 1980’s. Some, like Kathy Dunderdale who succeeded Danny Williams, parlayed it into a victory in a subsequent general election and a longer stay in the premier’s office.
Others have not been so successful. For example, following the departure of Brian Peckford in 1989, Tom Rideout occupied the premier’s office for less than seven weeks until his defeat by Clyde Wells in a general election.
Beaton Tulk lasted a bit longer following the departure of Brian Tobin in 2000. Tulk, the Deputy Premier under Wells, sat as premier for about four months before standing aside as Roger Grimes narrowly defeated John Efford in the party’s leadership convention.
Roger Grimes was the premier for an even longer period of time based solely on a vote of Liberal Party members. Brian Tobin won a general election in 1996 and again in 1999, but 20 months after his second victory he opted to run in a federal election. Roger Grimes held the subsequent party leadership contest and then held the office of premier without facing the voters in a general election until he finally called an election in 2003 where he was defeated by Danny Williams.
Williams was succeeded by Kathy Dunderdale in November 2010. Six months later Dunderdale won a general election, something that Rideout, Tulk, and Grimes failed to do. Dunderdale departed (leaving Muskrat Falls as part of her legacy along with that of being the first woman premier of Newfoundland and Labrador) four years later.
Following Dunderdale’s departure, the deputy premier of the day, Tom Marshall, occupied the premier’s office for a bit more than eight months followed by Paul Davis who won a Conservative Party leadership race in September 2014. Davis held the premier’s office for 15 months before losing the provincial general election to Liberal Dwight Ball.
When John Hogan eventually faces the voters in a general election, we’ll find out whether he’ll join Kathy Dunderdale as a party’s choice who wins office in a general election or whether he’ll join Tom Rideout, Beaton Tulk, Roger Grimes, and Paul Davis as politicians who inherited the office but failed to keep it in a general election.
Regardless of how Mr. Hogan fares in the upcoming general election, he is at least guaranteed a tree being planted in his name on the Government House grounds along with Mr. Rideout’s, Mr. Tulk’s, and Mr. Grimes’ Norway Maples and Mr. Davis’ Linden tree.